John Petro
We Can Not Defer the Future Health of the MTA
Should we put these plans on hold? Image from the Regional Plan Association, Tomorrow's Transit: New Mobility for the Region's Core.
Throughout the MTA budget crisis, New York State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has often been a voice of reason. Silver supported bridge tolls, and when opposition to tolls solidified in the Senate, proposed a compromise: tolls on the bridges would be equal to the base subway fare.
But now the Speaker, probably driven to despair by some of the idiotic ideas that have emerged from the state legislature and the apparent inability of Senate leader Malcolm Smith to propose a worthwhile plan, has gone off the deep end.
Citing an unnamed “source”, the NY Post says that the Speaker is considering “scaling down” funding for the MTA’s capital plan.
"Maybe we should wait a few years before doing a full-blown capital plan to see how the economy is doing and see what the revenues are going to be like," the source said.
Let’s all just assume that this “source” was not speaking on Silver’s behalf. However, since this rumor is now in circulation, let’s take the opportunity to soundly discredit what is one of the worst ideas to emerge from the entire MTA funding fiasco.
Now, just because the state legislature is unable to conjure up the political ability to properly fund one of the most important assets in the entire state, it doesn’t mean that the MTA’s capital needs will just sit idly by to wait for a better fiscal climate. Unfortunately, the MTA’s subway cars, busses, and commuter trains will continue to age. Deferring their maintenance is not only unsafe, but is financially imprudent. Deferred repairs now will just mean that trains and busses will need to be replaced sooner, at higher cost. Similarly, tracks, switches, and stations need constant maintenance. The longer repairs are put off, the more expensive it will ultimately be to rehabilitate them. In the meantime, legitimate safety concerns will remain.
It is often said that we don’t want the mass transit system to return to the dark days of the 70s and 80s. However, let’s take a quick look at why, courtesy of From Rescue to Renaissance by the NYU Wagner Rudin Center:
“With insufficient funding for maintenance, the MTA’s aging infrastructure began to fall apart and approached total collapse. Tracks were not inspected on a regular basis. Stations were left to deteriorate. The subway system suffered repeated derailments – one every 18 days in 1982-82 – caused by crumbling tracks and structures. Trains routinely arrived late, if at all: in 1981, 325 train runs were abandoned on a typical day.”
Deferred maintenance cost the MTA in the long run. New subway cars that were purchased at this time should have lasted 40,000 miles before the first breakdown. Instead, without funds for preventive maintenance, subway cars only lasted between 9,600 miles and 17,000 miles between breakdowns.
However, the MTA began a program of repair, maintenance, and expansion in 1982 to address these needs. The MTA had the support of the city, state, and federal government. Thanks to more than 25 years of investment, the MTA is now operating at a much more safe and efficient level. Unfortunately, the state has now walked away from its responsibility to fund the capital needs of the system. The federal government continues to underinvest in the nation's largest transit system, one that moves 8.5 million people a day. Now the MTA is having trouble funding the repair and maintenance of the system. Higher fares, reduced service. You know the drill.
Even if the MTA retains its current level of maintenance and repair, other critics may suggest that the MTA abandon some of its “big-ticket projects” such as the Second Avenue Subway or the East Side Access tunnel project. But even deferring these projects would be a mistake.
One reason is that the cost of construction is so low right now that capital projects are an outright bargain. Materials are significantly cheaper due to the recession and bids for new projects are coming in lower than state DOT’s and other transportation agencies were expecting. This is a tremendous opportunity to completed projects at a lower cost. In a couple of years, these projects will be more expensive than ever to complete.
Another reason is that there are also costs associated with pausing a project that is underway. Delays are one of the biggest factors that contribute to cost overruns. It is also impractical. I don’t think you can just leave a tunnel boring machine in the ground, sitting idle for a couple of years, and then just start it up when you find the money.
Third, these projects are providing vital jobs and injecting cash into the local economy at a time of economic recession. Therefore, investments in infrastructure pay even higher dividends than they normally would. Richard Ravitch estimates that the MTA’s previous five-year capital plan created an estimated 38,500 jobs annually for nine years. These are jobs that we cannot allow to disappear because of the inability of the state legislature to get its act together.
Finally, any delay in completing expansions and improvements to the mass transit system will negatively affect the ability of New York City to handle the estimated one million new residents that are expected to live here by 2030. Subways and buses are already crowded. We need to act now if we are to accommodate this new growth.
Plans to expand the system are barely adequate to address our future needs. The city will need to coordinate with the state and the federal government in order to plan for an even more ambitious program of system expansion if New York is to remain globally competitive. By contrast, China is investing hundreds of billions of dollars in new subways and intercity rail projects.
In the end, the New York City of the future will only be as great as its current ambitions. With ambitions like, “"Maybe we should wait a few years,” the continued greatness of the city is in doubt.
John Petro: Author Bio | Other Posts
Posted at 12:40 PM, May 04, 2009 in
Transportation | Urban Affairs
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