James Carmichael

Turnout Midterms ‘06: Numbers Low. EDR no panacea for Montana. Where to go from here?

As the dust settles and we all begin to forget about "Contest '06" and speculate on "Democratic Majority '06-'08," and before Thanksgiving puts a hopeless psychological obstacle between us and November 7th, it seems worth it to take a look back at this year's election from a voter participation perspective.

If you're reading this blog, you've probably read a lot about the elections already, including a good deal of speculation about how high-profile races, divisive national issues, and tight contests would galvanized the voter base. I just got an email from a terrific organization about the rockin' youth vote turnout. Without being unduly negative, it seems like a good idea to attach some numbers and perspective to the adjectival discussion of this momentous midterm. The most straightforward one is this: according to the non-partisan Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE), national turnout was around 83 million this year, or 40.4% of the population. Voters under 30 "rocked the vote" to the tune of 25% turnout. More like a bossa nova, really.

There are interesting details: despite strong/record turnout in states like Virginia and Tennessee, not all states with hot races saw turnout bumps- Maryland, Minnesota, and Florida all reported drop-offs, despite each having competitive races. Click here to read the full report.

It's also interesting to see what effect Montana's experiment with EDR had. EDR, or Election Day Registration, has a lot of smart advocates who posit that freeing people from having to remember to register will increase turnout. This year, Montana gave it a go for the first time. Despite causing some delays, it seems to have run very smoothly. Did it increase turnout? A look at the CSAE's numbers casts some doubt. Montana's turnout in 2002 (the last mid-term election) was 48.02%, compared to 55.58% in this year's election. That's a healthy jump of 7.56%, compared to a rather meager 0.7% increase nationally. BUT, if we compare Montana to seven other states with races that were either tight or widely publicized (Connecticut, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia), we see that they on average enjoyed a 6.55% increase in participation. Amongst that pack, then, it's not clear that EDR had a dramatic effect.

Which isn't to say that it's not a good idea: even a small impact is good, so long as the integrity of the process isn't compromised, as is any measure that makes voting more convenient for those who fulfill their civic responsibility.

What seems most important to remember- amidst all the comparative values- is that the numbers we're dealing with are still very low. A look at the CSAE's report shows that, even in states celebrating record turnout, we're dealing with participation in the low 40- and 50-percent range. Even if one takes the higher numbers offered by political campaigns and various state offices you're still in the same ballpark. This still places us well at the back of the pack in any comparison of international turnout levels.

So, these dramatic midterms failed to have a meaningful national impact on turnout. How does this bode for the (imminently eminently dramatic) Presidential Elections in '08? Hopefully, more states will continue to do what Montana has done: try out new solutions, make sure they work, see if they have an effect over time. To see what reforms Hillary Clinton, Arlen Specter, John Kerry and others favor (including multi-day voting, EDR, mail-in voting, no-excuse in-person absentee balloting, and an Election Day Holiday), take a look at these videos of them discussing the topic.

To end on a local note: New York has resolutely failed to implement any of these reforms, although this tardiness also meant that the planned transition to Diebold machines didn't happen this year. Our turnout? 33.97%. The Empire State can do better- EDR and multi-day voting (in any form) may not be cure-alls, but they're clearly worth considering when only 1/3 of your citizenry is inclined or able to participate in the process.

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Posted at 7:59 AM, Nov 24, 2006 in
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